Income For Life makes post-election purchases
Income For Life Portfolio makes post-election purchases. I launched the new Income For Life portfolio last April when most of us had been led to believe that the country faced 5 more years of uneasy coalition of one sort of another, and because of this I was deliberately cautious in my initial selections.
I chose to invest only £20,000 of the £100,000 theoretically available to the Income for Life Portfolio, even though my targets are to deliver a net income to beat something in excess of 5% from the bank (if you could still get such a return), and an actual return of over 4% net in the first twelve months.
My thinking was driven by uncertainty over how the markets might react, not least in useful potential growth-of-income sectors such as utilities.
As so often the case, I need not have worried, as markets as a whole are lower now than they were then, helped as we go to press by events in Greece. Followers of the original Rising Income Retirement Portfolio will know that this pleases me at this stage of constructing the fund, since it makes topping up most of my shareholdings more attractive now.
Utility companies, though, are a bit higher instead of quite a lot lower as they might have been on the expected election result. An exception is National Grid whose price has dropped despite being one of the three shares to have raised its dividends since April.
The first selections in April were driven by those shares going xd beween April and now, so as to maximise income during the fund’s most difficult period, its first few months. The last column in Table 1 shows the problem.
Whereas the annualised income from the 10 original stocks suggested in the initial April report was 5.3%, my best efforts at dividend date manipulation will only result in the fund receiving £482 between inception and end-August.
This represents an entirely respectable 2.4% of the £20,000 invested in the Income for Life Portfolio, equivalent to over 5.7% annualised, but it represents a yield of under 0.5% of the total I have to invest before next April.
Income for Life Action plan
So my strategy this quarter is
- to purchase up to the maximum number (5) of £1,000 investment units in those shares which will be going xd again in the coming quarter, such as GSK, or which have fallen significantly without any apparent change to the underlying investment merits, such as BAE, National Grid, and Shell
- top up other shares by one or two units so as to allow maximum benefit of pound-cost averaging and maximum dividend capture over the coming 9 months
- identify new shares going xd in the coming quarter which meet the underlying criteria.
The result is 4 new shares, only one of which, BATS, is a duplication from the original RIRP, a modified and accelerated version of whose philosophy drives the IFL. BATS are a classic illustration of what rising income investment is all about. When I originally bought it for the RIRP it was among one of the lowest yielders, barely scraping in above my 4% minimum target.
Now, as Table 2 shows, at 7% it is among the leaders in terms of yield on the original capital invested, but unlike others where dividends have grown even faster, like BT or Legal & General, the share price has “only” kept pace with the dividend increases, meaning new investors can still get in on the game.
A safer HSBC?
Of the others, as with both portfolios, these are shares I hold myself but which still seem to be underrated by the market and likely to deliver rising payouts. I agonised a while over HSBC, as all my fingers have burn scars resulting from my unwillingness to believe the banking system was as bust as it was revealed to be in 2008. But I conclude that HSBC’s new focus and potential Midland Bank spin-off should enable it to continue to deliver rising payouts for shareholders in one form or another.
I can see nothing in anything that esure has released which can explain why it should be yielding so much above the sector average, and similarly I cannot see why Kier is rated at a discount to (for example) Costain, if only because of its large involvement in Crossrail.
The net result of all this is that at £48,000 the IFL is now nearly 50% invested, and I hope to be able to discipline myself so that I shall still have around £25,000 uninvested at the beginning of January.
Meanwhile the original RIRP continues to excel. Table 3 shows that nearly all companies have now announced that they will be paying out more this year than last, bringing the rise in the fund’s underlying income to nearly 5%.
Of the shares which show no rise, GLIF was bought as an income booster in troubled times for the fund, with little short-term expectation of growth; Lloyds and RSA have only returned to the dividend lists this year and so no percentage increases can be calculated.
Doubts over Infinis
I may have taken my eye off the ball with Infinis: I originally bought it around the IPO offer price because I did the maths on their £55m cash dividend forecast and reckoned a yield of 7% was too good to miss. But the latest figures show that this is likely to be short earned this year, or as the market seems to think more likely, cut.
The capital value of the shares is also down because of uncertainty over future government subsidies for renewable energy, and the residual 70% shareholder has told the world it wants to sell.
I had great difficulty getting hold of the latest Infinis report and accounts from their internet site, and its remarks about future dividend prospects are at best Delphic. I was tempted to reinvest some or all of the GLIF holding into Infinis on the grounds that at the current price around 200p the dividend – due to be paid in August – represents an immediate return of over 6%, and whatever any subsequent rebasing may entail seems more than discounted at the current price.
But no: I am committed not to make any changes to the old RIRP until my annual January review, which will coincide (I hope) with final top-ups for Income for Life.
Far ahead of target
The luxury of the mature RIRP is that I can sit out some short-term disasters, as Infinis may turn out to be in rising dividend terms, as the regular reports on the first 7 years proved; all the more so following Direct Line’s capital reconstruction and special 27.5p dividend which, together with Standard Life’s even bigger similar exercise back in April, brings my projected “bonus” for the year ahead to over £2,700, over 40% of the fund’s projected underling income.
Those of a more nervous disposition may want to use some of this windfall to make up for the capital loss you would create if you crystallise your Infinis book loss now.
The latest, bigger, measure of inflation, the RPI, shows it running at 1%, and as I concluded last time, a rise in the RIRP’s underlying income of what is now over four times that is good enough for me, even before the “bonus” income, bringing the projected rise in income for the year to over 25%. Indeed, “trebles all round”!
First published in The IRS Report on 4th July 2015.